The Thin Red Line Episode 1

What is the red line?

Imagine playing against two robots. One is programmed to never fold and the other to only call with AA. When playing against the one that never folds, your red line will never be positive and will be at best, breakeven, but your blue line will be positive because you can value bet them relentlessly. When playing against the robot who only calls with AA, your red line should be positive and your blue line will vary depending on how you play. At micro stakes, most players play similar to the robot that never folds so you should be value betting a lot and will probably have a high blue line and a varying red line. Small stakes will have more solid regulars who will often show down with solid hands and the way to beat these guys is not in value betting but in making good bluffs which increase your red line. Although the regulars are more solid, they are mostly weak tight meaning they will not call down light but will fold to aggression.

How does the red line work?

• Bluffing
• Value betting (the thinner you are capable of value betting, the more your red line will increase. If you are capable of value betting thin, you will increase your blue line when you get called and have the best of it and also increase your red line when your opponent folds.)
• Bluff catching (if you are good at bluff catching, it will be good for your red line. When you fold on the river, your red line will decrease and your blue line will remain stationary. If you are the type who makes a lot of call downs, good or bad, it will keep your red line stationary and increase or decrease your blue line.)

The “standard” game

• Your standard game is what you default to against unknowns. Your play against them based on assumptions of the average player.
• Once you gain more information, you deviate from your standard game and build a game plan around the new information. Problem with most players is that they are either incapable or choose not to adjust their game.
• Players that do not or are incapable of adjusting will allow you to get away with a lot of stuff against them.

Pre-flop deviation: Opening

• “Strong” hands vs. “Pretty” hands (strong = big pairs, broadways, pretty = SCs)
• What are the player types at your table? (when deciding whether to play strong or pretty hands, you should check the players left to act and their tendencies. Against call happy opponents, you want to be opening more strong hands that you can value bet with, hands like K9, A8, QT. Against weak tight players, you can play hands like 75s and 97s because you can semi-bluff them and keep the pressure on.)
• What are their positions and stack sizes?
• Who is the most likely player to give you action? (identify your target so that you can adjust your range according to their tendencies and know what to expect against them.)
• What is your image?
• Stealing with ATC (if you are opening 3x in the SB against the BB, the BB has to be playing 40% of his hands or you show an instant profit.)

Pre-flop deviation: Calling and 3-Betting

• Polarized vs. depolarized 3-betting (as a general rule, we should 3-bet a depolarized range from the blinds because people tend to call more IP and a polarized range IP because people tend to fold more.)
• Your reads and edge determine the range of hands you can play profitably.
• Your opponents' fold to 3-bet and 4-bet tendencies determine your 3-bet frequency and range.
• For 100bbs, “strong” hands play better in 3-bet pots than “pretty” hands.

Post-flop deviation:

• DON’T just make the standard 2+2 ABC play.
• Think of how your opponent plays.
• Come up with a strategy to exploit.
• Do it! (if you come up with a line that you think is most +EV, just do it. Do not worry about what others will think and what the “standard line” is.)

Post-flop deviation: Strategy

• Two big concepts that will help you better understand how to exploit your opponent is Honesty and Dishonesty. A “honest” action is one that represents their hand. A “dishonest” action is one where a player gets tricky to misrepresent their hand. HUDs are a good way to spot honest and dishonest players which will allow you to exploit them.
• Example of a honest play is when a player opens and you call IP. He c-bets the flop and you call. The turn is a scare card and he c/f. This is a sign of an honest player because the scare card is a good card for him to bluff but he folds instead. 
• GC uses the c-bet and fold to c-bet stats a lot. They are good determining level of honesty and point of honesty.
• FvCB: You flop a hand about 1/3 times so if you call only when you hit, you would call a bet 33% and fold 66%. Anyone who folds 60%+ is honest because they call only when they hit their hand or have a draw. We can c-bet against this type of player with a very high frequency, sometimes as high as 100%.
• FvTB:  On the turn, if someone with about 60%+ FvCB calls on the flop, it probably isn’t a good idea to bluff them. We should only continue if we have a hand we want to bet for value/protection or if a really good scare card falls.
• TCB: Many people tend to have a very high/dishonest flop c-bet but honest turn c-bet. Dishonest flop players will often slow down on the turn unless they improved or had a strong hand to begin with which is 35-40% of the time. Although 35-40% TCB is fairly honest, people can still mix up their play so the stat is not completely reliable. This leads us to take a look at their turn c/r.
• Turn c/r: If a player has a low turn c/r and turn c-bet then that is a sign that he is honest. He will be c/f’ing the turn a lot and we can take advantage of that. We can float his c-bets then take it away on the turn when he checks. Note that if the villain bets, our FvTB should be very high. Evaluate according to board texture and hand strength but second pair type hands will usually be no good. This will also allow you to open up your game against this player pre-flop as well. If you find someone who has an exploitable tendency, it makes sense to open up pre-flop against them by calling IP and trying to take it away from them post.
• As the PFR vs dishonest player (someone with a low FvCB and high Bet IP vs Missed CB likes to float a lot):
• FvCB: Against a dishonest player who folds very little to c-bets, we can bet a wider range for value. Their flop calling range can be wide for various reasons but a lot of it will be very weak hands that will either fold to a second barrel or try to take the pot away from you later.
• Bet IP vs Missed CB: A player with low fold to c-bet and high Bet IP vs Missed CB is someone who floats a lot. They plan on calling the flop and taking it away on the turn. The worst thing you can do against this type of player is c-bet the flop and c/f the turn because that is exactly what they want. Instead of taking that line, you want to either double barrel, c/c or c/r the turn. In order to accomplish this, you will have to adjust your flop c-betting range and frequency. 
• Example1: You are OOP with 44 on KT2r. Should you c-bet this flop? Most players would say yes because this is a good flop for our perceived range, but the answer is no because it would be incorrect against this opponent. He will be floating a wide range on the flop and we will be forced to c/f the turn because our hand has very little equity against his range. Folding instead of c-betting the flop is a non-standard play, but correct against this specific opponent. 
• Example 2: You are OOP with JT on KT2r. Should you c-bet this flop? The answer is yes because he will be floating you with a lot of worse hands. On the turn, we can take the c/c line because he has a high Bet IP vs Missed CB, we are basically checking to induce. The river play becomes much more tricky if he bets but the flop and the turn plays are very clear. This same line should be taken with hands like AK. Most people would double barrel the turn thinking that he can call with worse but the truth is this guy’s turn range has a lot of air and cannot stand a double barrel. So instead of double barreling, we stand to make more money by checking to him. He will bet all his worse hands as a bluff and if he has a K, he will bet it for value for us. Another line is to c/r the turn and the question we have to ask is which one will make us more money, c/c or c/r? If we c/r, our opponent can only continue with a very strong hand, hands like Kx or better. We will fold out all his air and get another bet from him on the river. But by the same token, if we c/c the turn, any hand that would have called our c/r on the turn would most likely bet the river anyways. By c/ring the turn, we get slightly more money in when he has a stronger hand but we maximize against his whole range (which is very wide) if we c/c the turn and c/c the river. Again this is a non standard play. Very few people would bet the flop and c/c the turn and river with AK but if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense against this type of opponent. 
• Example 3: You are OOP with QJ on KT2r. This is going to be a standard c-bet because your hand has good equity and some fold equity and it leaves your options open on the turn because you maintain initiative. On the turn, you can either double barrel or c/r. Both are good options but it will be somewhat opponent specific. If your opponent is going to call you down light whether you c/r or double barrel, it would be cheaper to double barrel. If your opponent is capable of folding some marginal showdown hands to a c/r then a c/r is more profitable because you will get a bet out of his bluffs and fold out some marginal hands you are behind. 
• Example 4: you are OOP with TT on KT2r. This hand should be played in the same way as AK following the same logic. Maximize value against his whole range. The only slight difference is that instead of c/cing the river, we can c/rai.
• As Defender vs dishonest PFR:
• What should our strategy be against someone who c-bets 80% on the flop, 60% on the turn and 60% on the river? This person c-bets too much on every street meaning he will have a very weak range overall. First of all we should do the opposite of what our opponent wants us to do, which is fold. His high c-bet percentage across all streets means he wants us to fold the turn or the river so we should never fold after we call the flop. Our flop range needs to be stronger against this villain so that we don’t have to fold the turn. We should never float him and should fold marginal hands that cannot stand a second barrel. 
• Example is 77 on T82 board, we have to fold because the turn becomes very difficult to play. Because our flop range is going to be much stronger, our opponent’s high double barrel percentage is going to be used against him as we will be taking a c/c or c/r line a lot. 
• Another counter strategy against this opponent is to never value raise the flop because we stand to make more calling him down. This can also be extended to our pre-flop play where we attempt to trap him by flatting hands like AA and KK so that we can let him incorrectly attempt to barrel us. Trapping with big hands pre-flop is going to depend on how often our opponent is folding to 3-bet and folding post-flop of course. If he doesn’t fold then you can just 3-bet and abuse him. Now if you have a draw against this guy, it is better to call his c-bet on the flop and raise the turn. As a standard, you would raise the flop against most people with draws but against this guy, his turn range is so weak that a raise will take it down a lot and we win more money when he double barrel and folds. We also look stronger on the turn when we raise as most people raise the flop instead.
• Vs. TAG opponent missing a standard flop c-bet: 
• For example, you are in the BB and call a TAG’s PFR. The flop comes KT2r, you check and he checks behind. This tells you a lot about your opponent’s hand strength. He is c-betting all his TP+ hands and air so when he checks, it is often going to be medium strength hands that are checking to induce and bluff catch (if you see someone take this line with a hand you did not expect, take a note as it will be invaluable to you in the future). When he checks the flop, he is almost never going to fold the turn, so if you plan on betting the turn, make sure you follow through on the river as well otherwise don’t bet at all. The worse line to take is bet the turn and check  river because that is exactly what he wants you to do. Now if you have a TP+ or a strong second pair that you planned on c/c'ing the flop with, you should bet the turn big for value. Your opponent is almost never folding to any size bet so you want to maximize value against them by betting pot or close to pot. This will allow you to maximize value if they call turn and fold river since your turn bet made you the most possible and it also allows you to get more value on the river since your big turn bet sets you up for a bigger river bet. The river bet sizing becomes somewhat of a leveling war because against bad straightforward players, they will call a half pot river bet but not a full pot because it looks scarier, but the truth is, the half pot bet is much more likely to be a value bet than a full pot. You can out level some people by betting half pot with bluffs because it looks like value and full pot for value. 
• Playing second pair/marginal hands against decent to good players: 
• When we have a second pair type hand like AT on KT2r we should check behind on the flop because we don’t believe we can get value. Now when we check the flop, our hand is turned face up and our opponent knows that we have a second pair type hand. He will end up betting the turn with all hands that beat us for value and with some bluffs, but when he checks the turn again, it will almost always be a c/f because he can’t beat second pair type hands. So the question is what can we do to balance our range since our strategy is exploitable. There are two solutions to this, first is to start c-betting second pair type hands. The second one is probably a bit better and that is to check back air as well. By checking back air, we can now make delayed c-bets that will have a very high fold equity on the turn. His double check is indicative of a hand that is c/f'ing. 
• For example, you have 87 on KT2r and you check behind on the flop. On the turn if our opponent checks again, he is telling us that he has a hand that cannot beat second pair and will most likely c/f. We can now very profitably make a delayed c-bet with a high success rate. Now if our opponent bets, he is telling us that he has a hand that can most likely beat second pair and we can comfortably fold. This will strengthen our flop c-bet range and balance our turn range while making our c-bets and delayed c-bets more successful and profitable. As a result, our red line will most likely increase. Remember that this is against a decent to good player, fishes and donks will have a different thought process, try to figure out what it is. 
• Another example of a good flop check is when we have KJ OOP and we 3-bet pre-flop and get called. The flop comes A82 and we have to decide whether to c-bet or check. On this board texture, people expect you to c-bet your air and TP+ hands 100% and when you check, your hand looks like a medium strength hand like KK or QQ that is going for a c/c line. By checking the flop, you can expect your opponents to rarely bluff you because they think your hand is face up. If they do bet when checked to, they most likely have the A or better and are betting for value. You end up saving yourself a c-bet a lot of the them and will also have a very high success rate with your delayed c-bet on the turn when they check behind on the flop. They are basically giving up after they check the flop.
• FvCB and DB relation: Let’s say someone donk bets 100% of the time when they hit something on the flop then that means when he checks, he has pure air. So if his DBs are honest, then his fold to c-bet stat should be very high (we can only c-bet if he checks to us so DB are not counted in the stat). If you ever play against someone who has high DB stat like 30-40% and a low FvCB then his DB is mostly bluffs because he can’t have a c/c range if he DBs all his made hands. The higher their FvCB stat is, the more credit you can give DBs and the lower it is, the less credit. 
• FvCB, Raise CB and FvTB: Someone with a low FvCB and a high Raise CB is going to be dishonest because you only hit a hand 1/3 times. Now if their FvTB is also low then you have a player who is very dishonest especially when he raises your CB. The reason is because the villain cannot have a low FvTB unless his flop calling range is strong and his flop calling range cannot be strong if he Raises CB so much. Now obviously if the player has a high FvTB, you need to give them more credit when they raise your c-bets. Now lets use some numbers to solidify this analysis. If your opponent has a FvCB of 40%, Raise CB of 20% and a low FvTB of say 40% then his flop Raise CB is going to be a lot of air. You hit a hand 1/3 times  or about 30-35%. If he raises with made hands only, then there is only about 15% made hands left in his range. If he only folds to c-bets 40% then he is playing 60% of his range on the flop with 40% of his range left after you subtract his Raise CB of 20%. Well only 15% of the hands left can be a made hand meaning 15%/40% or 3/8 of his range on the turn is a made hand and the other 5/8 is air which he will have to fold on the turn. Now our stat is that he folds only 40% of the turn meaning his calling range on the flop should have a lot more made hands. This implies that his raising range is weak. The only way his FvTB can be low while his Raise CB % is high with strong hands is if he is someone who double floats. Then you are going to have to look at his FvRB stat. (realize that no one is playing 100% of their made hands on the flop so realistically, the numbers are going to be much smaller.)
• A more simple analogy to help understand the relationships above is if a guy is flatting all his premiums pre-flop (slowplaying) and is 3-betting you 3% of the time, his 3-bets are air even if his 3bet stat is low. There are only so many premiums and if he flats them, he already used them up so his 3-bets have to be air.
• WWSF: A dishonest player will have a higher WWSF because he likes to fight for the pot. A honest player will have a WWSF of about 35%. Grindcore has a WWSF of about 50%. If a player with 35% WWSF is betting into you, you should be folding even with your bluff catchers and versus someone with 50%+, you should call down lighter.
• Be careful about sample size as someone with a high WWSF can be just catching cards.
• WTSD: players who have a high WTSD tend to bluff catch more.
• W$SD: someone with a high WTSD and a high W$SD is someone who doesn’t value bet much and likes to trap or slowplay.
• River AQ: players with 20% AQ almost never bluff, 30% bluff a lot and 25% is right in between.
• A player with very dishonest stats such as low FvCB, low FvTB, high WTSD, low W$SD and high WWSF and is down money is most likely going to be a very dishonest player.
• A player with high WTSD, WWSF and W$SD is someone who doesn’t really value bet and is probably winning a lot of pots through aggression and bluffs.
• Also look for players who have a low FvCB and a high Bet River OOP vs Missed CB. These type of players will be floating a lot and trying to take it away on the river. You can check the turn instead of double barreling to get more value from them.
• At the end of the day, it is not about your red or blue line but your green line. Try to make the most +EV play and things will work out.