Some of my students often have a hard time beating mid-stakes games even though they are capable of doing so. They said the main reason is they don't know what level their opponents are on and they end up losing. I then ask them usually when you have one of these “level wars,” how often does your opponent shows you the nuts. The answer is, “usually often.” So what is happening here is my student is playing the leveling war against himself. I must go out of my way to remind them that the only hands that a nit balances in his range is the nuts, the second nuts, and the third nuts. That's it. There's no more other hands when you see a huge raise on the turn or the river.
The question you should be asking isn't what level is he on. Rather, it's how capable is your opponent. For example, let's say you raise on the button and a solid player defends from the blind. It doesn't matter what the flop is. You bet. He calls. The turn is you bet. He calls. The river he donks bet small, you raise with the 4th nuts, and he shoves. What do you do?
The first question you would normally ask yourself in this spot is what level is he on or what level does he think you are on? However, what you should ask yourself is, “is he capable of taking this line as a bluff?”
If you think he is capable of taking this line as a bluff, try to think of the last time you saw someone took this line as a bluff. If you can't come up with any hand, then it is likely you are giving your opponent too much credit. Because trust me, that's a bizarre line to take. If you were to see it, you would remember it, especially if it's a bluff. I have probably played over 1 million hands of poker. I can't even recall one situation where an opponent takes that line as a bluff.
Of course, if you have some kind of nasty read that it's a bluff, by all means, call. But don't sit there and think you are playing a leveling war against an opponent who play the hand bad and was lucky you have a strong hand to raise the river.
Another question you should ask yourself is would I take that line as a bluff? If you would never take that line as a bluff, it is unlikely he's taking it as a bluff if you think he's comparable to you in skill, which is likely since you guys are playing at the same stakes. Of course, this isn't 100% fool proof but it does give you a place to start.
Remember, think of what he is capable of. No one messes with you as often as you think. They are too busy playing solid or grinding their daily quota of hands. Or they are trying to avoid variance by tangling less with a regular. Or best of all, you're playing against a moron so stop bluffing him! Because in a moron's mind, you are capable of everything so he will call and you will lose.
The question you should be asking isn't what level is he on. Rather, it's how capable is your opponent. For example, let's say you raise on the button and a solid player defends from the blind. It doesn't matter what the flop is. You bet. He calls. The turn is you bet. He calls. The river he donks bet small, you raise with the 4th nuts, and he shoves. What do you do?
The first question you would normally ask yourself in this spot is what level is he on or what level does he think you are on? However, what you should ask yourself is, “is he capable of taking this line as a bluff?”
If you think he is capable of taking this line as a bluff, try to think of the last time you saw someone took this line as a bluff. If you can't come up with any hand, then it is likely you are giving your opponent too much credit. Because trust me, that's a bizarre line to take. If you were to see it, you would remember it, especially if it's a bluff. I have probably played over 1 million hands of poker. I can't even recall one situation where an opponent takes that line as a bluff.
Of course, if you have some kind of nasty read that it's a bluff, by all means, call. But don't sit there and think you are playing a leveling war against an opponent who play the hand bad and was lucky you have a strong hand to raise the river.
Another question you should ask yourself is would I take that line as a bluff? If you would never take that line as a bluff, it is unlikely he's taking it as a bluff if you think he's comparable to you in skill, which is likely since you guys are playing at the same stakes. Of course, this isn't 100% fool proof but it does give you a place to start.
Remember, think of what he is capable of. No one messes with you as often as you think. They are too busy playing solid or grinding their daily quota of hands. Or they are trying to avoid variance by tangling less with a regular. Or best of all, you're playing against a moron so stop bluffing him! Because in a moron's mind, you are capable of everything so he will call and you will lose.
By Tri "Slowhabit" Nguyen
