Friday, November 19, 2010

Don't Read This Tip by Phil Ivey

When it comes to advice about poker, my attitude is very simple: seek it out, absorb it, but while you're at the table, forget it.
I'm a firm believer in learning the game by playing the game. I'm not saying there aren't a lot of great resources around to help players improve their games or that poker books and tutorials don't have their place. They do. However, the problem I see with people who rely on these kinds of aids is that they end up playing poker like someone else or - even worse - like everyone else.
One of the things that makes poker great is that it's a game where there's really no right or wrong way to play. Every player has their own approach to the game and the key, in my opinion, is to take the things you learn from other players and incorporate them into a style of play that works for you.
There are some players who take a very mathematical approach to the game, and for them, it works. They study the odds and make decisions based on whether they think they're getting the right price to commit their chips to a pot. It's a solid way to play, but the fact is, it's not the right approach for everyone. What's more, even the best of these players will tell you that math only takes you so far.
Calculating the odds can certainly help you decide whether you're making a smart move, but it doesn't take into account who you're playing against. There are many times when you can do all of the math you want and your decision still comes down to intangibles and a feeling about your opponent or the situation you're facing. Does this guy have a hand? Can I push him off the pot? Am I getting myself into trouble here? Even if the odds say you should play, your gut may be telling you something else, and that's something you can only develop by playing.
Relying too much on other peoples' advice can actually make it harder to develop this kind of reading ability because it tends to clutter up your head. You get so focused on thinking about odds, probabilities and strategies that you forget that you're playing against someone else and that you have to try and figure out what he or she is doing. Are they scared? Will they fold to pressure? Are they a maniac? In my opinion, these are the important things to keep in mind during a hand.
It's been said before, but it bears repeating. Poker isn't about the cards; it's about the players and the situations. Winning players understand that sometimes you have to take chances. Sometimes they work and other times they don't. Whether you win the hand or not, you have to make the play that you believe is best.
At the end of a hand or a session, go back and study the things you did well and be honest with yourself about where you made mistakes. Don't, however, overanalyze how you could have played a hand differently because this can negatively impact how you approach your next hand or session. Identify your mistakes, learn from them, and move on. Just because some play or move didn't work the way you wanted doesn't mean you were wrong to try it. As I said before, there are just some things that you have to learn by playing.
So here's my advice. Read this tip. Read other tips and poker books. Talk to your friends. Absorb as much information as you can. But at the end of the day you have to trust your instincts and play your own game - not someone else's.

Classroom: Optimal 3-bet Pots Part 1

Why do people find 3-bet pots so tough?
  • One of the most common leaks people claim to have is "I'm not very good in 3-bet pots, especially when I have to call the 3-bet."
  • This should come as a bit of a surprise. The deeper you are, the tougher decisions usually are. Yet for 3-bet pots, the pot is usually already 20bb+ on the flop with less than 90bb effective stacks behind. So why do people find them so hard?
    • Reason #1 - Most of your 3-bets should come from OOP.
    • Reason #2 - If you are facing the 3-bet, the majority of your calling range is medium strength hands while your opponent has a polarized range.
    • Reason #3 - Since the pot is 3x the size on the flop, mistakes matter much more than in single raised pots.
    • Reason #4 - They occur less frequently than raised pots.

Reason #1 - 3-bets Usually Come from OOP
  • In general, when you 3-bet your opponent IP, your opponent won't likely flat your 3-bet.
  • This makes 3-betting less effective. If you open from MP and I 3-bet you in the button, you will likely 4-bet bluff or fold. If I 3-bet you from the blinds, you would most likely call with AQ and other marginally strong hands (medium pairs, AJs, KQs, etc).
  • As a result, when you are 3-bet bluffing you will usually be OOP and be left to make decisions post-flop with weak hands (87s, 44, A5s, etc) that would be much easier to play if you had position.

Reason #2 - When you Flat a 3-bet IP, You're Rarely Strong
  • If your opponents are good and think you're good, most of their 3-bets will come from OOP when you open the CO or button.
  • While it is likely theoretically correct to rarely slowplay a big pair, the majority of your calling range will be marginal hands.
    • Big unpaired cards, suited connectors, pocket pairs, medium suited gappers.
  • While you get the advantage of position with these hands, it's much harder to play a range of medium strength hands than it is a range of nuts/air. For example, it is harder to make mistakes with a range of overpairs and gutshots  than it is with medium pairs, overcards, TPWK, and medium strength draws.

Reason #3 - Mistakes Matter More
  • Since the pot is so huge in a 3-bet pot, missing a 1/2 PSB usually costs you 2-3x as much money as it would in a single raised pot.
  • People tend to remember mistakes which cost them a full stack but don't care as much when they miss a 6-10bb value bet.

Reason #4 - They Occur Less Frequently
  • As previously mentioned, you should mostly be calling IP and 3-betting OOP. People tend to defend much wider IP than OOP, so most pots which are played post-flop will be single raised pots.
    • When the CO opens, you expect the button to defend the most by calling rather than 3-betting.
  • 3-bets also just take down the pot a lot pre-flop. When you3-bet in the BB, you likely won't see a flop. When you flat an open in the BB, you're always seeing a flop.
  • These reasons all contribute to people being less comfortable and playing worse in 3-bet pots than raised pots.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 1)
  • A standard 3.5bb open yields an immediate profit if it folds around 70% of the time.
    • Therefore all positions must 3-bet a combined 30% of the time if they never flat.
  • Nevertheless, there's no need to actually 3-bet so much because sometimes it's better to flat rather than 3-bet.
  • When you open the worst hand in your opening range and are 3-bet, you've lost the 3.5bb open since you should always be folding.
    • Theres no reason to defend K5s in the CO or 87o in the button , call or 4-bet bluff better hands.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 2)
  • While it's easy to see that you effectively "lose" 3.5bb when the worst hand in your opening range is 3-bet, how much money you "lose" when the hand is called is ambiguous.
    • What do you think your EV is when you open K4s in the CO and the button flats and blinds fold? How many big blinds would you pay to just get your 3.5bb back?
  • For this reason, we can't exactly determine how much we need to be flatting and 3-betting to defend against an open. We can however determine the frequency our 3-bets need to be bluffs in order to make our opponent indifferent to 4-bet bluffing.
    • An open to 3.5bb usually gets 3-bet to around 12bb, and if that CO responds by 4-betting it's usually to 25bb. The CO risks 22.5bb to win 17bb, so it must work around 56% of the time. In this example, we'd want 56% of our 3-bets to be bluffs so the CO is indifferent to 4-bet bluffing.
      • The % will change slightly depending on his sizing and ours, and whether or not we're 3-betting from the blinds.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 3)
  • In general, value 3-bet your strongest hands, call with your next strongest hands, 3-bet bluff your next strongest hands, and fold your worst hands. There are, however, reasons to deviate from this rule.
    • Good opponents will realize your flatting range misses some flops (227r, K62r, etc). Randomizing your calls with some AA and AK is very nice for balancing boards where your range is so weak.
    • Your opponents may squeeze you and you want some strong hands to mix into your flatting range (or rejamming range if you're OOP).
  • Nevertheless, your 3-betting range should be highly polarized both IP and OOP, since 3-betting marginally strong hands (AQ or the BTN vs MP) does not accomplish anything but fold worse and get crushed by his 4-betting range.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 4)
  • The same logic applies for defending against 3-bets when you're IP. If you are on the button and the SB 3-bets you, what is the point in 4-betting KQ, AQ, or AJ?
    • There is none. Your opponent isn't 3-betting AJ, KJ, or AT for value, so you'd rather call with these hands and bluff worse.
  • The net result is the 3-betting range having lots of very strong hands (TT+, AQ+ depending on positions) and some weak bluffs (low pocket pairs, suited connectors and gappers, Axs, Kxs, etc).
  • The 3-bet calling range has mostly medium strength hands (TT-66, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJs, etc), as it folds or 4-bets most of it's very strong or weak hands.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Information. Overload. Must. Process.

What's up all you readers? For the next week or so, the format of my posts will be slightly different. Instead of posting notes from videos, I will post notes on my notes! I feel that there is a healthy amount of information accumulated in this blog that needs to be processed. Watching videos and taking notes is all fun and good, but re-reading and picking out important pieces of information will help me absorb this wealth of knowledge better. I will do this periodically when there is sufficient content built up. Look forward to it! or not.

13 Scariest Leaks

#13. Expecting Results
  • Too many players expect results without putting in time at the tables.
  • There is no substitute for actually sitting down and playing a ton of hands. (This is definitely my BIGGEST leak).
  • Getting in a lot of hands forces you to be honest with your skill level.
  • More hands = less variance.

#12. Afraid of Other Limits
  • Approach playing a range of limits as a smart, strategic decision that reflects the current conditions of the games or your mindset.At the end of the month, take a note of your winrate and number of hands played at both limits and adjust accordingly.
  • Doing this allows you to make very empirical evaluations of your game and allows for much smoother transitioning both up and down in limits.
  • Introduce yourself to a new limit by playing a small percentage of your volume there.
  • It will allow you to "cherry pick" while maintaining a stronger focus.

#11. Dead Money
  • Opening very wide from late position vs. tight players in the blinds.
    • If you are on the BTN and the blinds are tight, you can open pretty much any two cards. The same is true for when you are in the SB and the BB is tight.
  • 3-betting players that open wide and fold often.
    • Check opponent's steal by position stats. If they are at or higher than 28% from CO, 35% from BTN and 30% from SB and also have high fold vs resteal of over 70%, you can 3-bet almost any two cards.
    • If you are on the BTN and UTG or MP is opening 18%+ but folding to 70% of 3-bets, raise it up.
  • Floating vs. regulars that c-bet too much
    • TAG players who c-bet 70%+ on the flop and less than 40% on the turn are begging to be called in position and either bluff-raised or floated on the flop.

#10. Redline Fixation
  • At the microstakes, the one statistic that you should be focused on is your winrate.
  • Don't attempt elaborate multi-street bluffs!
  • Having a positive redline isn't about playing loose, aggressive, and bluffy.
  • Because so many players hate to fold, compensate by value betting them thinly.
  • When you're able to successfully bluff-catch, pots that normally go to your non-SD column suddenly get moved to SD.
  • The fewer tables you play, the more you can focus on the action at hand.
  • Less tables = better reads, thin value bets and scary-good bluff catching.
  • Remember: A solid winrate > a sexy redline.
  • If your winrate is good, the green lines are the only ones that truly matter.

#9. Leveling
  • Thinking too deeply about a hand.
  • Level Zero:
    • Monkeys click buttons.
    • No rhyme or reason.
    • Best dealt with my playing Level One.
  • Level One:
    • Focus is on the absolute strength of their hand.
    • Never folds TPTK or overpairs.
    • Best dealt with playing Level Two
  • Level Two:
    • Familiar with hand reading and ranges.
    • They focus on how their opponents play and act accordingly
    • These players will often get outplayed by a Level Three.
  • Level Three:
    • Represent a reasonable and wide range of hands via lines.
    • Paramount that your opponent is able to read hands.
    • Necessary for the range that you're repping to be fairly wide to be believable.
  • The majority of what you are learning is miles ahead of what the average player thinks about at the micro.
  • Thinking too deeply at the micros will often be a mistake.
  • Early on at a table, try to understand which level your opponents are playing on and adjust accordingly.

#8. Bet Sizing
  • Bet sizing starts pre-flop.
  • Whether you choose to open for the minimum or something a lot larger makes a huge difference.
  • If you always open to 3x or pot, you are burning money.
  • Situation One:
    • You're on the BTN and have a Pro SS in the blinds
    • Raising over 2.5x and folding to a shove is a leak.
    • A min-raise in this spot is ideal.
  • Situation Two:
    • UTG with QQ-AA and have 2 players with 50+ VPIP.
    • Not raising 4-6 BB's is a leak.
    • The size of your raise will seldom be a factor.
    • Start building a big pot early.
  • Most players have set continuation ranges on flops which have little to do with size of your bet.
  • Villain either has a hand he likes or he doesn't.
  • Against most villains, size your flop bet based on the strength of your hand.

#7. Lack of Support
  • When it comes to poker, you don't know everything.
  • Being mentally strong is one of the few traits that truly separate successful players from the unsuccessful.
  • Surround yourself with friends who will motivate, encourage, offer advice and simply help you along when times get tough.
  • Truly successful people surround themselves with other successful people.
  • A group is useless if you don't use it.
  • Don't fall into complacency.

#6. OOP Play
  • In position, you are able to control the size of the pot and get to showdown cheaply with marginal hands.
  • Tighten up from UTG and MP.
  • At most tables, you'll be OOP at least half the time or more from EP.
  • Versus loose BTNs, tighten up your CO range to include more high cards (like QTo) and less drawing cards (like 86s).
  • In general, having a very loose player on your left is -EV for this very reason.
  • If you are in the SB and the BB is loose, steal much less frequently.
  • If the BB likes to see flops, you'll be forced to open much tighter and check/fold a lot of flops.
  • You are often better off 3-betting or fold from the blinds when faced with late position opens or calls.

#5. C-betting Without a Plan
  • Just because you raised pre-flop doesn't mean you need to automatically c-bet.
  • Two scenarios:
    1. We raise UTG w AJs and get called by a competent regular in the SB. Flop comes K58r.
    2. We raise QJs in CO and get called by the same TAG regular OTB and the flop, again, comes K58r.
  • In scenario 1, we have a lot of good things going for us. We have a strong perceived range, initiative and position. We also have good backdoor equity that will allow us to double barrel fairly often. All this combined with the fact that we have a decent idea of our villain's range makes this a good c-bet spot.
  • Scenario 2 is not as good and possibly -EV. We are OOP in this example versus a strong opponent with a wide range. We have no backdoor equity and no good plan for the turn.

#4. Level One Poker
  • If your poker universe revolves around the two cards in front of you, you are playing level 1 poker.
  • It's a huge leak because winning relies on you connecting with the flop.
  • Losing too many big pots with overpairs and TPGK-type hands? Chances are, you're suffering from this leak.

#3. Calling Too Many 3-bets
  • The Wrong Reasons:
    • Having position post-flop.
    • Wanting to "own people".
    • Just wanting to see flop.
    • Fear of being exploited.
  • None of these reasons provide a plan for post-flop play.
  • All of these reasons are emotional rather than intellectual.
  • The Right Reasons:
    • You have the implied odds to continue with marginal hands.
    • Villain is 3-betting a lot, but folding to most 4-bets.
    • You are happy to go with your hand post-flop, but unhappy to get it in pre-flop.

#2. Tilt
  • Few Key Points:
    • Everyone has the potential to tilt. Everyone.
    • Tilt is an emotional reaction which cannot be overcome intellectually or analytically in the heat of the moment.
  • Tilt: Any deviation from your A-game and your A-mindset, however slight or fleeting.
  • Soft Tilt: When we stop playing our A-game because we are tired, hungry or distracted.
  • Hard Tilt: Traditional, emotionally-charged tilt. When a naturally conservative player becomes obviously emotionally wracked and starts raising every hand.
  • Tilt is our brain's evolutionary reaction to a threat.
  • The brain responds to a threat by increasing emotion in proportion to the perceived significance of that threat. When emotions rise to your threshold, higher brain functions are systematically reduced in proportion to the level of the emotion. The loss of higher brain functions like: self control, rational thought, logic, perception of self and other, organization, planning, strategy, mental manipulation of information, and others are the hallmark characteristics of Tilt.
  • The sobering reality is that you have absolutely no control over this process. When emotions rise to threshold, the response taken by the brain happens every time, guaranteed.
  • Tilt Game Plan:
    • Recognize your own tilt triggers.
    • Understand how your game changes when tilt starts.
    • Develop a strategy that keeps you from crossing over.
    • Execute that strategy.

#1. Table Selection
  • The Lake Wobegon Effect: Where all or nearly all of a group claim to be above average.
  • The single biggest factor in determining your winrate and variance will be the competition you face.
  • If you have a clear and defined edge on a player, your winrate will be high and your variance low.
  • Determining Your Edge:
    • Identify specific leaks in your opponent's game.
    • Have a plan for exploiting those leaks.
  • Example One:
    • A player on your right is playing over half his hands and never folds to 3-bets or c-bets.
    • Get max value in position with overpairs and better pairs with better kickers.
    • Dream situation where you can potentially have a big edge.
  • Example Two:
    • A Reg c-bets 85% of flops but only 30% of turns.
    • You call with many speculative hands pre-flop, float with wide range and bet turns when checked to.
    • Compared to the first example, this will constitute a much smaller edge for you.
  • Example Three:
    • A LAG is sitting on your immediate left 200 BB's deep.
    • He's playing 25/22 and 3-betting 9% of his hands.
    • This type of player is obviously very difficult to play against.
  • Example Four:
    • A 14/12 nit is sitting directly across from you.
    • He plays a tight range and often bets multiple streets because he frequently has strong hands.
    • You're unable to steal his blinds.
    • This type of player is not profitable.
  • Recap:
    • Look to identify all potential edges ASAP when you sit at a new table.
    • No good reasons for being at a table? Leave.
    • Figure out who you want to be involved with the most and least.
  • Go out of our way to play pots with player that we have the biggest edge on and avoid the ones where we have a small or no edge on.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

MTR Special - BalugaWhale 3-Bet

When deciding whether or not to call a 3-bet OOP, you need to be sure that your opponent's range is polarized and you are crushing it. If your opponent 3-bets you and shows up with a hand like TT or AJ, you might need to re-evaluate your options as he might have a depolarized range.

Table Dynamics Matter! We need think about how table dynamics affect other people's 3-betting range and our own 3-bet range. When there is/are fish in the blinds, we want to play pots with them and therefore we will end up calling more raises than 3-betting. Our 3-betting range will end up being polarized because of this.

Someone with a big 3-bet % most likely has a polarized range. There are only so many strong broadway hands you can 3-bet.

If you notice that someone is 3-betting a depolarized range, 4-betting them might not be very profitable because they are more likely to 5-bet shove than someone 3-betting a polarized range.

If the above is true then wouldn't it be extremely profitable to 4-bet hands like AK, AQ against a depolarized range? The answer is no because our opponent's depolarized 3-bet range will include a lot of hands that do well against us equity wise. If we run a pokerstove of AQs+,AQo+ vs. 88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo, the AQ+ range is only a 53.7% favorite.

Now what about 4-betting AA? 4-betting and calling with AA are obviously both +EV but it is probably more so to call. Although someone with a depolarized range will get it in slightly more often than someone with a polarized range, we will win more post-flop when they over commit. Calling allows hands like KQ, KJ, AJ to make a mistake which might not happen when they sometimes fold to our 4-bet.

This all leads to calling more with our premiums against a depolarized range.

Against depolarized players, we play back against them on low boards

Against polarized players, we play back against them on overcard flops.

Against a monkey 3-bettor, we close our eyes and click call.

Against a depolarized player, we should be calling with more premiums and fewer non-premiums. Against a polarized guy we can play a wider range and we can float him more than raise on the flop. A good play is to raise on the turn. People with polarized ranges tend to double barrel too often when they pick up equity. Double barreling when you pick up equity works only if your opponent is calling or folding so raising is our best option.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Leakfinder: SSNL by MDoranD

Ax hands are good for 3-betting IP vs. TAGs and NITs. The reason is because TAGs and NITs will most likely 4-bet hands like AK and to a lesser extent AQ and fold weaker Ax which effectively makes any Ax the same in strength as far as kickers are concerned. With the initiative and added value of having blockers, Ax hands are great hands to add into your 3-bet range.

When you first sit down at a table, it is better to be aggressive than passive. People will generally give you more credit when they have no information. Once they get some hands, you can adjust.

Avoid raising donkbets without a valid reason, "because donks are weak" is not good enough. You are playing a guessing game and in most cases, it is better just to call or fold. Example: Hero raises K7o OTB and fishy looking BB calls. Flop comes AA4r and fish donks less than half pot. Hero? Folding is perfectly fine without reads. Unless Hero knows that the BB has a high donkbet % or has seen at showdown the type of hands the BB donks, raising here is nothing but guess work and most will not be profitable. Our game should revolve around us using all relevant information available and eliminate guessing. 

Always scan your tables for easily identifiable targets. If you don't see any, its time to shop for a new one.

MDoranD advocates taking lines that take away as much guessing as possible when we are in spots where we don't have reads. Example: A tight 16/11 MP (over small sample) opens to 2.5x and we call in the SB with 88 and the 17/13 BB also comes along. The flop comes K56r and MDoranD likes a donk here. Reason is because we don't know much about the MP's frequency when it comes to c-bet and double barrel. If we intend to put anymore money in the pot, we should take a line that reduces to number of uncertain variables. Our hand needs some protection and is strong enough to get some value. One other factor that makes this a profitable donk is that we don't expect the villain to adjust particularly well.

We should almost always be 3-betting a fish with JJ. Even against fish that have tighter PFR % like 43/14 or 32/10, a 3-bet is very profitable. Their PFR might be tight but they will not adjust their 3-bet calling range. 3-betting allows us to get more money in while we're ahead and win more when the fish makes a mistake post-flop. Another reason we want to 3-bet is to get the pot HU. We do not want to call a fish's PFR and then have the pot go multi-way with JJ.

One problem I have with my game is knowing when to isolate when OOP. This is something I'll have to work on, but there is one spot in the video that shed some light on the topic. 27/11 player limps in MP and it folds to Hero in SB with 66 and a 14/8 BB left to act. This is a good spot to iso-raise. It would be better if MP is a LPF of 43/10 but a 27/11 is good enough. We want to iso here to force the tight BB out of the pot instead of giving him a chance to see the flop with any two cards. Our 66 won't win post-flop in a three way pot very often without initiative. A iso-raise here will force out the BB and put the LPF in an uncomfortable position which will allow us to take it down pre-flop or post-flop with a c-bet.

I have always been unsure of what to do with AQ when a nit opens but MDoranD gave some pretty valid reasons to 3-bet. Even nits open up their range to some degree OTB. We won't end up dominating him when he calls or 4-bets but it is still very profitable because of how often he will fold pre-flop or post-flop when he calls to setmine and misses. Nits will most likely 4-bet hands that dominate us like AK, QQ+ and fold almost everything else. The profitability of calling to keep in dominated hands is insignificant because we will be playing OOP without the initiative.

Bet bigger when you are ahead of your opponent's range for value! Don't default to smaller bet sizes because you are scared to inflate the pot. Example: Hero has 6d6h in MP and opens. CO (44/28) calls and the flop comes 3h3d5d. What should our c-bet size be? Against this seemingly loose and somewhat aggressive player on a board where we expect to have the best hand a large percentage of the time, we should bet big. The CO can have a number of FD's, overcards and pocket pairs that will peel our flop c-bet. The pot is 7bbs, Hero should bet about 6bbs here and double barrel a number of turn cards that do not change the board texture too much.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Teaching Tommy: Episode 1

These are just some of the notes I jotted down while watching the video although there is a lot of very good stuff. This episode is definitely worth a re-watch when I go on a downer and need solid advice.
  • Fish in the blinds means you can play a very wide range of hands even if the players behind you are loose. Until those loose players give you reason to tighten up, isolate and abuse the fish.
  • Threads13 says that A3s is a good enough hand to call IP OTB vs a 21/17 CO open. I often just fold there, is that a leak? If these is a fish in the blinds, then calling is definitely profitable although I often fold all the same. Need someone to enlighten me on this matter. 25:00 A3s OTB, table 2.
  • It is better to call with AK from the blinds then to 3-bet if our opponent's fv3b is high. Both plays are +EV but calling is likely to be more +EV. We make more money by keeping his dominated hands in and he value owns himself. A 3-bet will take it down often pre-flop but we could easily use a much weaker hand to do so. It is correct to start 3-betting AK when we know our opponent's calling range is wide.
  • 3-betting from the blinds vs a UTG open. Threads13 does not 3-bet from the blinds much as it balancing is difficult to do and playing OOP versus a strong range is never fun.
  • Always, always, always think in terms of equity: Pot Equity + Fold Equity. Make your decisions based on these two factors!
  • As an extension of the post Pre-flop Raise Size IP vs Fish in Blinds, we should also make our 3-bet sizes bigger vs. fish when IP. Unless we feel the fish is adjusting their calling range by a lot based on our 3-bet size, a smaller 3-bet is leaving money on the table.