1:00, table 2: Vil donks 25%, c/r 37%, and fvcb 52%. His db and c/r are both insanely high yet his fvcb is only 52% which means he is either someone who floats OOP with air or his db and c/r range are both insanely weak. My guess is that his db range is weak so I would raise the flop with the intention of getting stacks in. Raise bigger, you don't need to do any sort of balancing against this fish. A bigger raise OTF will allow you to bet/call the turn and win more when he calls flop and c/f turn. You should be double barreling that J imo, you have too much equity and a decent amount of fold equity.
3:55, table 3: I like the check there. I'm not so much worried about the 20/16 regular as I am of the fish. The regular would have raised most of his strong Jx hands pre-flop and raise the flop with strong hands like sets and two pair. The fish on the other hand can have very many combos of Jx which outweight the combo of draws.
7:45, table 2: BB has a very low 3-bet percentage in the blinds vs steal which most likely means that he 3-bets for value. If we don't think the fish will come along then I much prefer a 4-bet to calling. I'm not sure about your 4-bet sizing though. I think I rather min4b him to 16 or so. A smaller 4-bet gives villain room to play back at us but more importantly, it is easier to balance if we ever decide to 4-bet bluff. If he folds, that just means we can min4b bluff profitably in the future.
10:10, table 3: The BB looks to be a fish playing 36/7. I don't steal there too often since SCs thrive on FE that you might not have, especially OOP. If the BB folds to Cb's a lot, I prefer a bigger pre-flop raise from the SB to 4x. You will get slightly more folds pre which is fine and you make more post-flop when he folds to your c-bet. You're pre-flop raising range there should be pretty strong as well so a bigger raise size is also for value for the times you actually have a strong hand.
19:35, table 1: I'm not sure I like a bet here. I don't think most regs are looking to c/f in this spot. When they check, it's usually to c/c. The only hand we are getting to fold that is ahead of us is AK. Most of his pair type hands won't fold and we are ahead of his air.
Everyone from the group feel free to post your own analysis in the comments section. We can do some discussion there as well.
Good analisys about donkbet range of the fish in the first spot. New for me.
ReplyDeleteBy checking we are loosing a lot of value (3:55), fish will have weak hand way more often than Jack (all flopped good hands would be probably raised).
I like your thoughts about situation with aces, but i think min4betting craates more FE than 4betting-AI (villian is nearly never bluffing here). Regular often has a pair here (we got 2 aces in our hand, so there are not much AQ-AK combinations), so he's going to call a shove often, because it looks like quick playing AK. Also fish can still call our shove with smth like AK or TT.
Def agree with u in other spots.
My thoughts about the vid after watching it:
ReplyDelete1:30 calling KQs vs donk is better. Villian is probably never going to fold anything he donks on wet low flop. So we can't maximize fold-equity by raising here. That's just throwing money away. Also fish can be afraid of our bet if flush on K or Q comes. He can pay if we would just flat on flop. if we raise checking behind is good on turn.
3:35 Bet here with A8o on 1st table. There are not a lot of jacks in villians' ranges, most of the sets couldn't be called often on wet flop (even by the fish). Fish would raised 99 preflop, so his range seems very weak and drawish. So we should get value from different pairs and draws. Def should fold to raise here.
08:00 I think squeezer has a hand nearly everytime whe he 3bets fish. That's JJ+, AQ+ (or even tighter). If we 4b he will probably fold AQ and JJ. If we 4b-shove he can call us with JJ more often (and even fish can call our AI with something like pocket tens). If we call we have fish in, who will go AI on flop very loose. So I would better call or 4b-shove here. By making it 20 euro 4bet we are moving out villan's weak hands (that's def what we don't want to happen).
13:28 If we bet A5o on such low wet flop, we should be def 2barreling on good turn (that's an overcard to flop and gives us Nut-FD) and fold to raise. We are squeezing villian's low pairs and floats now (that's blind war, so there re a lot of floats on this flop). Even if he calls we can win pot by betting or making the best hand on river.
14:40 Why are we cbting JJ on Kxx rainbow flop. Nothing worse would call us (i don't think that even fish will float with AJ-type hands here, he would better c/r it). If we check, this aggressive fish can barrel vs our "weak" range. I don't think that he will reaize that we have exactly QQ or JJ, so he's not going to bet a lot with air here. Anyway we are IP and can should control the potsize. I would better play check beh. 2 streets and bet river or call 1 bet vs our missed cbet and check/fold other streets.
16:12 T8s is good hand to squeeze OOP vs 2 regs. That's optional, but +EV.
18:56 4bet or fold AQs vs resteal, espessially vs this good sizing. I think betting vs missed 3bettor's cb on low dry flop isn't profitable. He is not cbetting very much, but def would c/r or c/call with monsters here. Also he can c/call smth like 99 or AK. With air he would cbet this flop often. So if we bet flop we have to bet turn, and even on later streets we don;t know if villian has marginal hand or monster. I prefer checking behind here.