Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Domination question (theory)


Malefiicus:
Depends on a lot of things. Quick little list of reasons to 3b and reasons to call.

Reasons to call
1) Fish in the blinds
2) You have a plan for most flops (I think QTs needs a plan if you're flatting it on the BTN)
3) Villain is a 4b monkey (myself for example)
4) Villain flats a wide range OOP vs 3bs
5) Villain bets a wide range on the flop but a narrow range on the turn, folds to floats often

Reasons to 3b
1) Squeezers in the blinds
2) Folds to 3bs often
3) Villain doesn't 4b often
4) One of your first hands vs villain (more fold equity/builds aggressive dynamic)
5) Villain doesn't fold to 3bs, but calls the 3b then folds the flop a lot.

I'm sure I'm forgetting some stuff, but just think about it and you should be able to come to a good conclusion.

tubasteve:
one thing:

"Don't 3bet it for value if it's going to be dominated by most of your villains range."

this is something i have discussed with noahSD (and baluagwhale if you can sit through the bad audio of coaching tree 2.2) at length, and he eventually convinced me it is incorrect. usually if you have a hand like KT/KJ and your opponents are only calling 3-bets with hands you dominate:

1) they are folding so much that 3-betting is hugely +EV just based on that FE w/out any postflop play (blockers ftw)
2) when they call, the odds of both of you flopping TP when dominated is the same as flopping a set so you have a ton of FE on a c-bet
3) you don't have to stack off 100% when you flop TP but even if you do as skreech mentioned its not like they made a correct call pf vs your range given how often they have to c/f
4) people make much bigger mistakes as the OOP 3-bet caller than we do as the IP 3-bettor and i dont think its close as long as we're not playing like lunatics 

so while this doesn't mean you should be 3-betting them all over the place, i certainly don't think people 3-bet them enough. hands liek KJo, ATo, and QTo tend to play pretty well when you are the 3-bettor compared to when you are the caller since w/out the initiative and w/out being suited you cannot continue on nearly as many flops.

check out noah's 5/10 ghost video b/c that is what really got me started thinking about this topic. i believe he 3-bet a loose BU open with KQo when the guy was folding to 83% 3-bet, i thought to myself "zomg keep the dominated hands in amirite?" and he said "hellz no tubasteve" 

conspecific:
So, just to check my understanding: upsides of 3-betting in position vs the guy that folds way too much pre-flop and check/folds way too much on the flop are that we win a lot of money uncontested. Downsides include the fact that his 3-bet calling range tends to dominate us, so occasionally we hit an unfavorable "favorable" flop and get boned, right?

The question is this: none of those upsides depend on us having KQ or KJ, while all the downsides do. (Well, for top pair hands, being able to pot control in position is good, too, I guess.) So in the case that we can't effectively valuetown the guy when we hit our top pair (because we assumed he's check-foldy on the flop and so presumably continuing mostly with the aforementioned range that bones us), shouldn't we just be 3-betting the polarized range in position (bluffs and monsters)?

tubasteve:
the point is that the EV of 3-betting someone that folds too much is often higher than calling regardless of our hand, and having KQ or KJ gives us blockers that make it more profitable. then postflop, yes, if he's going to fold he's going to fold, this is true, but when we have the blockers he's going to fold more often, making a 3-bet with KQ more profitable than one with K8, which likewise is more profitable than one with T8.

the way noah put it to me was that if he knew his opponent had KQ, he would 3-bet rather than call with KJo despite being a 3-1 underdog b/c he has a ton of FE postflop even if the guy flatcalls every time preflop.

you are correct also that we should be more apt to flatcall some of these hands IP, but there are times when it is not a great idea such as when there are light squeezers behind, or if you want to avoid multiway action.

also, you shouldn't 3-bet 67s that often mainly b/c it plays way better in single raised pots than 3-bet pots, even moreso than KQ by far.

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