Wednesday, November 3, 2010

MTR Special - BalugaWhale 3-Bet

When deciding whether or not to call a 3-bet OOP, you need to be sure that your opponent's range is polarized and you are crushing it. If your opponent 3-bets you and shows up with a hand like TT or AJ, you might need to re-evaluate your options as he might have a depolarized range.

Table Dynamics Matter! We need think about how table dynamics affect other people's 3-betting range and our own 3-bet range. When there is/are fish in the blinds, we want to play pots with them and therefore we will end up calling more raises than 3-betting. Our 3-betting range will end up being polarized because of this.

Someone with a big 3-bet % most likely has a polarized range. There are only so many strong broadway hands you can 3-bet.

If you notice that someone is 3-betting a depolarized range, 4-betting them might not be very profitable because they are more likely to 5-bet shove than someone 3-betting a polarized range.

If the above is true then wouldn't it be extremely profitable to 4-bet hands like AK, AQ against a depolarized range? The answer is no because our opponent's depolarized 3-bet range will include a lot of hands that do well against us equity wise. If we run a pokerstove of AQs+,AQo+ vs. 88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo, the AQ+ range is only a 53.7% favorite.

Now what about 4-betting AA? 4-betting and calling with AA are obviously both +EV but it is probably more so to call. Although someone with a depolarized range will get it in slightly more often than someone with a polarized range, we will win more post-flop when they over commit. Calling allows hands like KQ, KJ, AJ to make a mistake which might not happen when they sometimes fold to our 4-bet.

This all leads to calling more with our premiums against a depolarized range.

Against depolarized players, we play back against them on low boards

Against polarized players, we play back against them on overcard flops.

Against a monkey 3-bettor, we close our eyes and click call.

Against a depolarized player, we should be calling with more premiums and fewer non-premiums. Against a polarized guy we can play a wider range and we can float him more than raise on the flop. A good play is to raise on the turn. People with polarized ranges tend to double barrel too often when they pick up equity. Double barreling when you pick up equity works only if your opponent is calling or folding so raising is our best option.

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