Classroom: Optimal 3-bet Pots Part 1

Why do people find 3-bet pots so tough?

• One of the most common leaks people claim to have is "I'm not very good in 3-bet pots, especially when I have to call the 3-bet."
• This should come as a bit of a surprise. The deeper you are, the tougher decisions usually are. Yet for 3-bet pots, the pot is usually already 20bb+ on the flop with less than 90bb effective stacks behind. So why do people find them so hard?
• Reason #1 - Most of your 3-bets should come from OOP.
• Reason #2 - If you are facing the 3-bet, the majority of your calling range is medium strength hands while your opponent has a polarized range.
• Reason #3 - Since the pot is 3x the size on the flop, mistakes matter much more than in single raised pots.
• Reason #4 - They occur less frequently than raised pots.

Reason #1 - 3-bets Usually Come from OOP

• In general, when you 3-bet your opponent IP, your opponent won't likely flat your 3-bet.
• This makes 3-betting less effective. If you open from MP and I 3-bet you in the button, you will likely 4-bet bluff or fold. If I 3-bet you from the blinds, you would most likely call with AQ and other marginally strong hands (medium pairs, AJs, KQs, etc).
• As a result, when you are 3-bet bluffing you will usually be OOP and be left to make decisions post-flop with weak hands (87s, 44, A5s, etc) that would be much easier to play if you had position.

Reason #2 - When you Flat a 3-bet IP, You're Rarely Strong

• If your opponents are good and think you're good, most of their 3-bets will come from OOP when you open the CO or button.
• While it is likely theoretically correct to rarely slowplay a big pair, the majority of your calling range will be marginal hands.
• Big unpaired cards, suited connectors, pocket pairs, medium suited gappers.
• While you get the advantage of position with these hands, it's much harder to play a range of medium strength hands than it is a range of nuts/air. For example, it is harder to make mistakes with a range of overpairs and gutshots  than it is with medium pairs, overcards, TPWK, and medium strength draws.

Reason #3 - Mistakes Matter More

• Since the pot is so huge in a 3-bet pot, missing a 1/2 PSB usually costs you 2-3x as much money as it would in a single raised pot.
• People tend to remember mistakes which cost them a full stack but don't care as much when they miss a 6-10bb value bet.

Reason #4 - They Occur Less Frequently

• As previously mentioned, you should mostly be calling IP and 3-betting OOP. People tend to defend much wider IP than OOP, so most pots which are played post-flop will be single raised pots.
• When the CO opens, you expect the button to defend the most by calling rather than 3-betting.
• 3-bets also just take down the pot a lot pre-flop. When you3-bet in the BB, you likely won't see a flop. When you flat an open in the BB, you're always seeing a flop.
• These reasons all contribute to people being less comfortable and playing worse in 3-bet pots than raised pots.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 1)

• A standard 3.5bb open yields an immediate profit if it folds around 70% of the time.
• Therefore all positions must 3-bet a combined 30% of the time if they never flat.
• Nevertheless, there's no need to actually 3-bet so much because sometimes it's better to flat rather than 3-bet.
• When you open the worst hand in your opening range and are 3-bet, you've lost the 3.5bb open since you should always be folding.
• Theres no reason to defend K5s in the CO or 87o in the button , call or 4-bet bluff better hands.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 2)

• While it's easy to see that you effectively "lose" 3.5bb when the worst hand in your opening range is 3-bet, how much money you "lose" when the hand is called is ambiguous.
• What do you think your EV is when you open K4s in the CO and the button flats and blinds fold? How many big blinds would you pay to just get your 3.5bb back?
• For this reason, we can't exactly determine how much we need to be flatting and 3-betting to defend against an open. We can however determine the frequency our 3-bets need to be bluffs in order to make our opponent indifferent to 4-bet bluffing.
• An open to 3.5bb usually gets 3-bet to around 12bb, and if that CO responds by 4-betting it's usually to 25bb. The CO risks 22.5bb to win 17bb, so it must work around 56% of the time. In this example, we'd want 56% of our 3-bets to be bluffs so the CO is indifferent to 4-bet bluffing.
• The % will change slightly depending on his sizing and ours, and whether or not we're 3-betting from the blinds.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 3)

• In general, value 3-bet your strongest hands, call with your next strongest hands, 3-bet bluff your next strongest hands, and fold your worst hands. There are, however, reasons to deviate from this rule.
• Good opponents will realize your flatting range misses some flops (227r, K62r, etc). Randomizing your calls with some AA and AK is very nice for balancing boards where your range is so weak.
• Your opponents may squeeze you and you want some strong hands to mix into your flatting range (or rejamming range if you're OOP).
• Nevertheless, your 3-betting range should be highly polarized both IP and OOP, since 3-betting marginally strong hands (AQ or the BTN vs MP) does not accomplish anything but fold worse and get crushed by his 4-betting range.

3-bet Pots: Pre-flop (Slide 4)

• The same logic applies for defending against 3-bets when you're IP. If you are on the button and the SB 3-bets you, what is the point in 4-betting KQ, AQ, or AJ?
• There is none. Your opponent isn't 3-betting AJ, KJ, or AT for value, so you'd rather call with these hands and bluff worse.
• The net result is the 3-betting range having lots of very strong hands (TT+, AQ+ depending on positions) and some weak bluffs (low pocket pairs, suited connectors and gappers, Axs, Kxs, etc).
• The 3-bet calling range has mostly medium strength hands (TT-66, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJs, etc), as it folds or 4-bets most of it's very strong or weak hands.