13 Scariest Leaks

#13. Expecting Results

• Too many players expect results without putting in time at the tables.
• There is no substitute for actually sitting down and playing a ton of hands. (This is definitely my BIGGEST leak).
• Getting in a lot of hands forces you to be honest with your skill level.
• More hands = less variance.

#12. Afraid of Other Limits

• Approach playing a range of limits as a smart, strategic decision that reflects the current conditions of the games or your mindset.At the end of the month, take a note of your winrate and number of hands played at both limits and adjust accordingly.
• Doing this allows you to make very empirical evaluations of your game and allows for much smoother transitioning both up and down in limits.
• Introduce yourself to a new limit by playing a small percentage of your volume there.
• It will allow you to "cherry pick" while maintaining a stronger focus.

#11. Dead Money

• Opening very wide from late position vs. tight players in the blinds.
• If you are on the BTN and the blinds are tight, you can open pretty much any two cards. The same is true for when you are in the SB and the BB is tight.
• 3-betting players that open wide and fold often.
• Check opponent's steal by position stats. If they are at or higher than 28% from CO, 35% from BTN and 30% from SB and also have high fold vs resteal of over 70%, you can 3-bet almost any two cards.
• If you are on the BTN and UTG or MP is opening 18%+ but folding to 70% of 3-bets, raise it up.
• Floating vs. regulars that c-bet too much
• TAG players who c-bet 70%+ on the flop and less than 40% on the turn are begging to be called in position and either bluff-raised or floated on the flop.

#10. Redline Fixation

• At the microstakes, the one statistic that you should be focused on is your winrate.
• Don't attempt elaborate multi-street bluffs!
• Having a positive redline isn't about playing loose, aggressive, and bluffy.
• Because so many players hate to fold, compensate by value betting them thinly.
• When you're able to successfully bluff-catch, pots that normally go to your non-SD column suddenly get moved to SD.
• The fewer tables you play, the more you can focus on the action at hand.
• Less tables = better reads, thin value bets and scary-good bluff catching.
• Remember: A solid winrate > a sexy redline.
• If your winrate is good, the green lines are the only ones that truly matter.

#9. Leveling

• Thinking too deeply about a hand.
• Level Zero:
• Monkeys click buttons.
• No rhyme or reason.
• Best dealt with my playing Level One.
• Level One:
• Focus is on the absolute strength of their hand.
• Never folds TPTK or overpairs.
• Best dealt with playing Level Two
• Level Two:
• Familiar with hand reading and ranges.
• They focus on how their opponents play and act accordingly
• These players will often get outplayed by a Level Three.
• Level Three:
• Represent a reasonable and wide range of hands via lines.
• Paramount that your opponent is able to read hands.
• Necessary for the range that you're repping to be fairly wide to be believable.
• The majority of what you are learning is miles ahead of what the average player thinks about at the micro.
• Thinking too deeply at the micros will often be a mistake.
• Early on at a table, try to understand which level your opponents are playing on and adjust accordingly.

#8. Bet Sizing

• Bet sizing starts pre-flop.
• Whether you choose to open for the minimum or something a lot larger makes a huge difference.
• If you always open to 3x or pot, you are burning money.
• Situation One:
• You're on the BTN and have a Pro SS in the blinds
• Raising over 2.5x and folding to a shove is a leak.
• A min-raise in this spot is ideal.
• Situation Two:
• UTG with QQ-AA and have 2 players with 50+ VPIP.
• Not raising 4-6 BB's is a leak.
• The size of your raise will seldom be a factor.
• Start building a big pot early.
• Most players have set continuation ranges on flops which have little to do with size of your bet.
• Villain either has a hand he likes or he doesn't.
• Against most villains, size your flop bet based on the strength of your hand.

#7. Lack of Support

• When it comes to poker, you don't know everything.
• Being mentally strong is one of the few traits that truly separate successful players from the unsuccessful.
• Surround yourself with friends who will motivate, encourage, offer advice and simply help you along when times get tough.
• Truly successful people surround themselves with other successful people.
• A group is useless if you don't use it.
• Don't fall into complacency.

#6. OOP Play

• In position, you are able to control the size of the pot and get to showdown cheaply with marginal hands.
• Tighten up from UTG and MP.
• At most tables, you'll be OOP at least half the time or more from EP.
• Versus loose BTNs, tighten up your CO range to include more high cards (like QTo) and less drawing cards (like 86s).
• In general, having a very loose player on your left is -EV for this very reason.
• If you are in the SB and the BB is loose, steal much less frequently.
• If the BB likes to see flops, you'll be forced to open much tighter and check/fold a lot of flops.
• You are often better off 3-betting or fold from the blinds when faced with late position opens or calls.

#5. C-betting Without a Plan

• Just because you raised pre-flop doesn't mean you need to automatically c-bet.
• Two scenarios:
1. We raise UTG w AJs and get called by a competent regular in the SB. Flop comes K58r.
2. We raise QJs in CO and get called by the same TAG regular OTB and the flop, again, comes K58r.
• In scenario 1, we have a lot of good things going for us. We have a strong perceived range, initiative and position. We also have good backdoor equity that will allow us to double barrel fairly often. All this combined with the fact that we have a decent idea of our villain's range makes this a good c-bet spot.
• Scenario 2 is not as good and possibly -EV. We are OOP in this example versus a strong opponent with a wide range. We have no backdoor equity and no good plan for the turn.

#4. Level One Poker

• If your poker universe revolves around the two cards in front of you, you are playing level 1 poker.
• It's a huge leak because winning relies on you connecting with the flop.
• Losing too many big pots with overpairs and TPGK-type hands? Chances are, you're suffering from this leak.

#3. Calling Too Many 3-bets

• The Wrong Reasons:
• Having position post-flop.
• Wanting to "own people".
• Just wanting to see flop.
• Fear of being exploited.
• None of these reasons provide a plan for post-flop play.
• All of these reasons are emotional rather than intellectual.
• The Right Reasons:
• You have the implied odds to continue with marginal hands.
• Villain is 3-betting a lot, but folding to most 4-bets.
• You are happy to go with your hand post-flop, but unhappy to get it in pre-flop.

#2. Tilt

• Few Key Points:
• Everyone has the potential to tilt. Everyone.
• Tilt is an emotional reaction which cannot be overcome intellectually or analytically in the heat of the moment.
• Tilt: Any deviation from your A-game and your A-mindset, however slight or fleeting.
• Soft Tilt: When we stop playing our A-game because we are tired, hungry or distracted.
• Hard Tilt: Traditional, emotionally-charged tilt. When a naturally conservative player becomes obviously emotionally wracked and starts raising every hand.
• Tilt is our brain's evolutionary reaction to a threat.
• The brain responds to a threat by increasing emotion in proportion to the perceived significance of that threat. When emotions rise to your threshold, higher brain functions are systematically reduced in proportion to the level of the emotion. The loss of higher brain functions like: self control, rational thought, logic, perception of self and other, organization, planning, strategy, mental manipulation of information, and others are the hallmark characteristics of Tilt.
• The sobering reality is that you have absolutely no control over this process. When emotions rise to threshold, the response taken by the brain happens every time, guaranteed.
• Tilt Game Plan:
• Recognize your own tilt triggers.
• Understand how your game changes when tilt starts.
• Develop a strategy that keeps you from crossing over.
• Execute that strategy.

#1. Table Selection

• The Lake Wobegon Effect: Where all or nearly all of a group claim to be above average.
• The single biggest factor in determining your winrate and variance will be the competition you face.
• If you have a clear and defined edge on a player, your winrate will be high and your variance low.
• Determining Your Edge:
• Identify specific leaks in your opponent's game.
• Have a plan for exploiting those leaks.
• Example One:
• A player on your right is playing over half his hands and never folds to 3-bets or c-bets.
• Get max value in position with overpairs and better pairs with better kickers.
• Dream situation where you can potentially have a big edge.
• Example Two:
• A Reg c-bets 85% of flops but only 30% of turns.
• You call with many speculative hands pre-flop, float with wide range and bet turns when checked to.
• Compared to the first example, this will constitute a much smaller edge for you.
• Example Three:
• A LAG is sitting on your immediate left 200 BB's deep.
• He's playing 25/22 and 3-betting 9% of his hands.
• This type of player is obviously very difficult to play against.
• Example Four:
• A 14/12 nit is sitting directly across from you.
• He plays a tight range and often bets multiple streets because he frequently has strong hands.
• You're unable to steal his blinds.
• This type of player is not profitable.
• Recap:
• Look to identify all potential edges ASAP when you sit at a new table.
• No good reasons for being at a table? Leave.
• Figure out who you want to be involved with the most and least.
• Go out of our way to play pots with player that we have the biggest edge on and avoid the ones where we have a small or no edge on.

Art of C-betting

A note about balanced ranges

• You should always balance your range in order to yield the highest rate of return for any given situation.
• Therefore you should not be taking any line 100% of the time and should constantly be adjusting when players make adjustments to you.

Heads Up in Position

• Board texture - how coordinated a flop is.
• Board texture is your primary consideration when deciding whether or not to c-bet. The more coordinated a board is the less likely you should c-bet without a good hand or one that has outs to improve.
• Coordination is really a misnomer. You should not just look at the board itself, but rather how the board connects with your opponents' range and the likelihood of him playing back at you.
• For example, you raise in the CO with QJo, the button calls and the blinds fold. The flop comes down 863 two clubs. If the button is very loose pre-flop but is relatively passive post-flop then a c-bet is correct. If the villain plays well and is likely to float or raise the flop then check/folding is correct.
• As a general guide line though, the less combination of hands that hit the flop the more often you should c-bet and vice versa.
• Think K22r as oppose to 987tt.

Checking Behind

• Hand strength is relative in poker.
• Sometimes it is better to give a free card that might cost you the hand in order to control the size of the pot.

Checking Behind Example

• You are playing 200nl with $200 stacks. You open AJcc to $7 in the CO and a good aggressive thinking player calls you in the BB. The flop is JdTh9h with $17 in the pot. 
• You very likely have the best hand and there are a lot of potential draws that could come on the turn.
• You should obviously bet to protect your hand right? WRONG!
• Often you will win the pot right there, but when raised, you are going to be in a very tough situation.
• On this board and in a large pot your hand is relatively weak.
• Either you are slightly ahead of his big draw or are way behind to an already made hand.
• Since his draws have good equity against your holding and his made hands have you crushed, your overall equity is very poor.
• With so much money left to bet, playing a big pot here is a bad idea.
• By far the best play on this flop is to simply check behind. Yes, occasionally the free card is going to cost you the SMALL pot.
• This is not a big mistake.
• Getting 100bb in the middle with poor equity is.

Stack Sizes

• Stack sizes are the key criteria.
• The shorter the stacks, the weaker the hands you can bet, vice versa for deeper stacks.
• With 20bb stacks, not betting the flop would indeed be a huge mistake.

Delayed C-betting

• Delayed c-betting is waiting till a later street to fire a continuation bet.
• This should be done when there is a strong likelihood of a check/raise, your opponent will interpret this for a marginal made hand and give up on the pot, you want to be deceptive with a draw, and or balance your checking behind range so that it is not one dimensional.

Dealing with Leads into the PFR

• We should call when the likelihood that our opponent is bluffing is high and our hand is strong enough to induce bluffs.
• We should also be calling to control the pot size.
• We should raise with hands that we want to build a big pot with, semi-bluffs, and with junk when we think that our opponents are weak.
• We should be folding on very coordinated boards when the likelihood of a bet/three bet is high or our fold equity is small.
• Again, board texture is paramount.
• We should also be folding against good players in spots where we do not have enough information to make accurate assumptions about their range.

Dealing with a Check/Raise

• We should be folding with most hands that do not have any value, unless we think the opponent is raising lightly and we are looking to re-bluff him later in the hand.
• We should be calling with a very wide range. It should include marginal hands, monsters, and sometimes even air.
• In my opinion, calling with a wide range of hands is the most effective way to adequately balance your flop range.
• We should be raising hands that we want to build a big pot with. This is mostly done against players who call too much and are weaker players in general. Do not get tricky against a calling station. Play your hands for value and let them make their favorite mistake: calling too much.
• We should also be raising against players who are check/raising very lightly and will fold their hand if raised.

Heads Up and Out of Position

• Since we are going to be giving up often on coordinated flops, we should sometimes be check/raising our strong draws, our made hands, and occasionally a bluff or two.
• Also, we can check/call our marginal made hands, which should induce bluffs from aggressive opponents.
• Lastly we have the weak lead
• This has two primary purposes
• To induce action with hands we want to play a big pot with.
• A cheap bluff that balances our action inducing with good hands.
• Dealing with a raise when you hold nothing.
• Folding is usually the best play however, re-buffing is a nice option.
• Board texture is paramount. When players raise innocuous board, they are representing a very narrow range and re-bluffing is sometimes best.

Multi-way and In and Out of Position

• Board texture, board texture, board texture.
• There are more hands involved so more boards are going to connect.
• As a general rule, you should be c-betting less with hands that have no value.
• Out of position you should be balancing your range with check/raises and check/calls as exemplified in other slides.